Federal Stability in Unequal Societies

The stability of federal systems is a thorny issue. Several scholars have attempted to come to grips with this problem and have proposed mechanisms or institutions which may contribute to the stabilization of federal systems. In many instances, however, the underlying mechanisms and micro-foundations are poorly specified. In this paper I build upon existing models dealing with decentralization and secession to incorporate unequal income distributions and externalities of public goods. Based on this some insights may be derived on the appropriate mechanisms to foster federal stabilit

Policy consequences of direct legislation theory, empirical models and evidence

Most theoretical models predict that institutions allowing for direct legislation should lead, on average, to policies more closely reflecting the wishes of the voters. While some agreement exists at the theoretical level about the expected policy consequences of direct legislation, empirical evidence has been scant so far. In this paper I discuss the reasons for this scantiness of empirical evidence, namely the intricacies of the adequate empirical model to test the theoretical proposition, and suggest possible solutions to this problem. Re-analyzing a dataset with which some authors have found no evidence in support of the theoretical claim, I show that with a better adapted empirical model we find results in synch with our theoretical expectations. Thus, policies in states that allow for direct legislation reflect on average more closely the voters' wishes. Using Monte-Carlo simulations I also demonstrate the properties of the proposed estimator and suggest that it could be used in other contexts, like when assessing the responsiveness of legislator

Some thoughts about referendums, representative democracy, and separation of powers

Referendums have experienced some sort of a comeback. Citizen involvement in political decisions is seen increasingly as a healthy add-on in democratic polities. While earlier writers on democratic theory often saw a danger in increased participation of citizens, more recently several authors suggest that this participation should be fostered. I argue in this paper that both sides in the debate neglect important aspects of referendums. Discussing whether direct participation by the citizens is a good or bad thing addresses only half the story. More precisely, we have to get a better idea about how referendums interact with the traditional institutions of representative democrac

The Effect of Misclassifications in Probit Models: Monte Carlo Simulations and Applications

The increased use of models with limited-dependent variables has allowed researchers to test important relationships in political science. Often, however, researchers employing such models fail to acknowledge that the violation of some basic assumptions has in part difference consequences in nonlinear models than in linear ones. In this paper, I demonstrate this for binary probit models in which the dependent variable is systematically miscoded. Contrary to the linear model, such misclassifications affect not only the estimate of the intercept but also those of the other coefficients. In a Monte Carlo simulation, I demonstrate that a model proposed by Hausman, Abrevaya, and Scott-Morton (1998, Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting. Journal of Econometrics 87:239-69) allows for correcting these biases in binary probit models. Empirical examples based on reanalyses of models explaining the occurrence of rebellions and civil wars demonstrate the problem that comes from neglecting these misclassification

Qualitative Comparative Analysis: How Inductive Use and Measurement Error Lead to Problematic Inference

An increasing number of analyses in various subfields of political science employ Boolean algebra as proposed by Ragin's qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). This type of analysis is perfectly justifiable if the goal is to test deterministic hypotheses under the assumption of error-free measures of the employed variables. My contention is, however, that only in a very few research areas are our theories sufficiently advanced to yield deterministic hypotheses. Also, given the nature of our objects of study, error-free measures are largely an illusion. Hence, it is unsurprising that many studies employ QCA inductively and gloss over possible measurement errors. In this article, I address these issues and demonstrate the consequences of these problems with simple empirical examples. In an analysis similar to Monte Carlo simulation, I show that using Boolean algebra in an exploratory fashion without considering possible measurement errors may lead to dramatically misleading inferences. I then suggest remedies that help researchers to circumvent some of these pitfall

Referendums in the EU's constitution building process

In ten member states of the European Union (EU) the new constitutional treaty was supposed to be ratified by referendum. A growing number of theoretical models predicts that such additional ratification hurdles result in an advantage for negotiators in the bargaining game. The impact such a referendum constraint can exert, however, depends on the timing of its announcement, the remaining ratification rules as well as the preference constellations. If parliament and voters are actually in favor of the new treaty, ratification constraints may cease to affect the bargaining outcome. After presenting the theoretical foundation of these arguments, we present empirical evidence much in line with the theoretical implications. More specifically, especially for the issues changed during the intergovernmental conference, those governments gained that had scheduled a referendum and voters had a stronger preference for the status qu

Common synaptic input, synergies and size principle: Control of spinal motor neurons for movement generation

Understanding how movement is controlled by the CNS remains a major challenge, with ongoing debate about basic features underlying this control. In current established views, the concepts of motor neuron recruitment order, common synaptic input to motor neurons and muscle synergies are usually addressed separately and therefore seen as independent features of motor control. In this review, we analyse the body of literature in a broader perspective and we identify a unified approach to explain apparently divergent observations at different scales of motor control. Specifically, we propose a new conceptual framework of the neural control of movement, which merges the concept of common input to motor neurons and modular control, together with the constraints imposed by recruitment order. This framework is based on the following assumptions: (1) motor neurons are grouped into functional groups (clusters) based on the common inputs they receive; (2) clusters may significantly differ from the classical definition of motor neuron pools, such that they may span across muscles and/or involve only a portion of a muscle; (3) clusters represent functional modules used by the CNS to reduce the dimensionality of the control; and (4) selective volitional control of single motor neurons within a cluster receiving common inputs cannot be achieved. Here, we discuss this framework and its underlying theoretical and experimental evidence

Polygyny or Misogyny? Reexamining the “First Law of Intergroup Conflict”

Kanazawa (2009) proposes a "first law of intergroup conflict," suggesting that polygyny and its impact on access to reproductive women provides "the ultimate cause" for civil war. This controversial claim is supported by an empirical analysis at odds with most existing studies of civil wars. We reconsider the influence of polygyny in a more conventional statistical model. We fail to find evidence that ethnic groups with polygyny engage more frequently in civil wars, although it is possible to find results indicating that civil wars may be more common in states with legal polygamy. We detail how these findings seem at odds with Kanazawa's theory and argue that misogyny seems a more plausible source of insights into the context for civil war and peace. We then show that civil wars are less common when women's rights are better established and that legal polygamy has no discernable residual effect once women's rights are considered. © 2011 Southern Political Science Association